Calcutta : Former Chief of Indian Army Staff (COAS), General Shankar Roychowdhury, fears that the political nature of the opposition to the country`s May 1998 nuclear tests could jeopardise the future of the country`s nuclear weapons programme.

In an exclusive interview to the SAPRA INDIA Bulletin, General (Retd.) Roychowdhury explained that the armed forces had always sought a nuclear weapons capability but had never felt it would materialise. The decision to go nuclear is a political issue and "quite frankly none of us expected that any government would go ahead and test", he said. "In 1974 we carried out what has been called a peaceful nuclear explosion, which is a contradiction in terms. Thereafter nothing happened. Given the trend of government thinking, I never expected anything like the May 1998 tests."

The Former Army chief disagreed with the view that the tests had in any way worsened India`s security scenario. "On the contrary, I think the tests are the right step forward and further progress in our nuclear weapons programme is absolutely essential," he said.

What Next?

General Roychowdhury argued that developing a nuclear weapons capability was absolutely essential for now and the future. "We have to build a minimum deterrent force not because we are against anybody per se. We have to do this because of our own supreme national interest and nobody can foresee the shape of the world and regional security even in the short term leave alone the long term. We live in an uncertain world. And if we want to live in peace we have to have the capability to ensure peace."

The country`s nuclear weapons programme was proceeding along the correct lines, he felt. The declaration of a "No First Use Policy" and the concept of minimum deterrence were correct and dispelled the view that India had grandiose or potentially aggressive plans. It may be recalled that none of the five nuclear powers - USA, UK, Russia, China or France - subscribe to the no-first-use policy. China says it does but qualifies by claiming the right to first use if its own territory is involved. This is of considerable significance for countries like India and others in the Far East (including Taiwan). China has claims on territory in these regions and could theoretically defend its right to use nuclear weapons in a war fought on such "disputed territory". Other countries like the United States have openly threatened to use nuclear weapons as recently as during the Gulf War. The US had warned Iraq that it would use nuclear weapons if Iraq used chemical weapons.

Surviving First Strike

Can minimum deterrence work? The former Army chief thinks it can. A major issue is the survivability of nuclear forces after a conventional or limited nuclear first strike. Militarily speaking, India is a very large country and short of completely destroying it through massive thermonuclear weapons strikes, no country could eliminate it`s capability to strike back. It should be pointed out that no country in the region as of now has the capability to devastate significant portions of India through nuclear strikes. SAPRA INDIA, for instance, in an internal study has estimated that even if Pakistan`s used its entire existing nuclear arsenal it might not be able devastate even one Indian metropolis the size of New Delhi.

"It is extremely difficult to locate and destroy missiles that are hidden", said General Roychowdhury. "This was proved during Operation Desert Storm when even the United States military with all its massive technological resources - which included four surveillance satellites focused exclusively on the battle area - failed to pick up Scud launches. In other words, survival is possible. What has to be worked out to the detail are the appropriate C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) systems."

The Former Army Chief also felt that it is necessary to go ahead and develop an entire triad of nuclear forces, which would include nuclear powered submarines carrying ballistic missiles, aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons and weaponised missiles of different types. "All three are critical. We need to develop all this over a certain period of time for which sufficient resources must be alloted," he added.

Political Pressures

The General felt that the most worrying development was the kind of political opposition being systematically built up against the country`s nuclear tests. "One of my concerns is the wrong kind of controversy some political elements have stirred up against the country`s nuclear tests", he explained." It would appear that they are not opposed to the bomb per se but are opposed to the BJP and therefore opposed to the tests. This is very worrying."

The former Chief hoped that "tomorrow should there be a change in government, then this important step taken in developing a nuclear deterrence should not be halted or stopped purely because the successor government is politically opposed to the present government. The nuclear programme in general should not be used to make a political point. That would be short-sighted and a tragedy for the country. But my fear is that given the political situation such a thing is quite possible," he added.

Other Issues

During the course of his wide-ranging interview to SAPRA INDIA, the former Indian Amy Chief spoke on various issues including the implications of the May Tests on war planning, the downsizing of conventional forces, proximate and long term regional threats, the Taliban, China and other Army specific issues like the status of the Arjun Main Battle Tank project. The detailed interview is to appear in the forthcoming issue of the SAPRA INDIA Bulletin.