A section of the US military establishment appears to have deliberately leaked provocative views on Pakistan`s nuclear capabilities to the media. The view is that Pakistan`s nuclear arsenal is vastly superior to India`s. On 7 June 2000, NBC reported that US intelligence and military agencies have now revised earlier estimates of India`s and Pakistan`s nuclear capabilities. They estimate that not only does Pakistan have upto five times more nuclear warheads than India but it also has far more accurate and effective delivery systems. NBC reported that after both countries conducted nuclear tests in May 1998, Pakistan had between 10 and 15 nuclear weapons in its arsenal while India had between 25 and 100. However, now they suggest they may have overstated India`s `home-grown` arsenal and understated Pakistan`s programme, which has been beefed up with `generous Chinese assistance`. According to one official, Pakistan is more likely to have `those numbers of 25 to 100 nuclear warheads than the Indians.` The NBC news report quotes General Anthony Zinni of the US central command who is familiar with the region and who has met with Pakistan`s military commanders, including General Pervez Musharraf. According to him, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty on the long-term assumption that Pakistan`s nuclear capability is inferior to India`s. The report further states that a recent US defence department analysis of India`s capability and readiness suggests that New Delhi is now `aware of its shortcomings` and is seeking to address the problem. It refers to the minimum deterrent force `comprised of a triad of nuclear delivery systems - air, mobile land-based launches and sea-based platforms` and adds `the air component of its triad is the only one that may be in place already`. The report states that India has fewer aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads than Pakistan and has no missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads.

New Delhi has twice tested the intermediate range Agni missile, which might eventually provide for delivering nuclear payloads. However, according to analysts, the Agni will not be fielded with nuclear warheads for another 10 years and India appears to have just begun work on missile warheads and miniaturization of weapons. While on the other hand, Islamabad`s F-16s and its French Mirage fighter bombers, according to these analysts, are `superior at penetrating enemy airspace` to India`s Soviet-designed MIGs and Sukhois. Besides, Pakistan is now estimated to possess 30 nuclear capable missiles - the Chinese-made M-11 short range missiles and its Pakistani variant, the Tarmuk, as well as the North Korean Nodong intermediate range missile, which the Pakistanis call the Ghauri.  Earlier, the Pakistani ambassador in Washington Maleeha Lodhi, in a speech to the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars warned that her country was left with no other options but to build a `nuclear force` as India embarks on a huge conventional arms build-up. She said: `We will not be foolish enough to be dragged into matching India`s huge and growing military expenditures. Instead, Pakistan will have to enhance its reliance on its nuclear and missile capabilities to ensure against the threat of conventional aggression or attack by India.`

The official Pakistani reaction to the NBC report was predictable. Its foreign office spokeman stated that the report is far from the truth and that their nuclear capability is "modest" as compared to the Indian nuclear establishment. On 8 June 2000, the Pakistani Foreign Office stated that the US intelligence report carries dangerous implications as it tends to justify the ambitious Indian programme for nuclear and conventional build-up. Pakistan states that in comparison to a few Pakistani nuclear facilities, India has a vast nuclear programme comprising dozens of nuclear installations, a large missile and space programme and an Air Force which is five times larger. India, on the other hand, has not given out any official reaction to the report. The Vajpayee government appears committed to sign the CTBT, a position again reiterated by defence minister George Fernandes recently in Japan. But the RSS and its front organisations, who have been sceptical about the CTBT, are now  expected to step up pressure to engage Pakistan in a nuclear arms race. BJP vice-president J.P. Mathur, reacting to the report, said, “India should be prepared to meet the challenge and we should not restrict ourselves to any agreement.”