Overview of the Speech
On 18 February 2005, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev presented a comprehensive review of his administration's policies and laid out the objectives that Kazakhstan seeks to achieve in the years to come. The speech highlighted the achievements under Kazakhstan’s Strategic Development Programme till 2030 and enumerates the results achieved by the government during the past decade. Post independence in 1991, Kazakhstan's socio-economic and political situation was precarious. The political and economic future at that time looked grim. The nation’s economy was in disarray, political development was at a nascent stage, the state coffers were empty and the Constitution was a legacy of the Soviet period. At that time, the international community was only concerned about the former Soviet republic's nuclear potential. However, independent Kazakhstan had laid out well defined goals for its people. Though it has been a gradual process spread over the last 15 years, Kazakhstan has emerged as a strong country in the region, both in terms of economic growth and political stability. The year 2005 also marks the tenth anniversary of the Kazakh Constitution.

Achievements
Economic independence
In his speech, President Nazarbayev outlined the successes achieved in the economic sphere. Kazakhstan introduced and expedited the process towards market reforms and the Government ensured that the necessary legislations to support such reforms were put in place. Giving a comparison which highlights the achievements, the President stated that while the per capital GDP was about $700 ten years ago, it stood at over $2700 at the end of 2004. Moreover, it is projected to reach around $3000 by this year end. The per capita GDP target set for 2010 is $5800 and $9000 by 2015 thereby putting Kazakhstan in the league of more developed countries. The GDP is also set to double by 2010 in comparison to what it was in 2000. Oil and gas continues to be the driving force behind these achievements, attracting over $30 billion in FDI. While global output has reduced in the 1985-2004, Kazakh production has increased by over 225%. Kazakhstan is also the first CIS country to establish a National Fund for Stable Socio Economic Development, to protect the economy against external shocks. The Fund currently has about $5.3 billion and the total National Fund, including the gold reserves, exceeds $14 billion. Due to an open trade policy, the volume of foreign trade in 2004 was estimated at around $33 billion, three times the figure of $7 billion in 1994. The standard of living in Kazakhstan has also improved considerably, according to the World Bank. Kazakhstan is bracketed in the group of middle-income countries where average income, minimum wages have grown by over 500 per cent between 1991-2000. The new capital Astana and its facilities are indicative of these achievements.

Political Development
In his speech, President Nazarbayev outlined the country's gradual march towards a democratic system. Though Kazakhstan was founded on the principles of Western democracy, it also borrowed features from the experience of other countries. Though the Kazakh model of political development is close to that of Western democracies, the President highlighted two differences. First, for Kazakhstan, democracy is the goal and not the starting point. Second, the model of democracy which is currently evolving accommodates the specific features of the diversity in Kazakh society, whether it is cultural or religious. President Nazarbayev highlighted several achievements in the context of democracy. These include: free and fair elections, division of powers, checks and balances, multi party system, civic society, supremacy of rule of law and independent mass media. In fact, the Kazakh president had earlier vetoed a bill in the parliament which had sought to restrict the media. Kazakhstan has taken special steps in the area of human rights; a human rights ombudsman has been established and Kazakhstan has joined several  international human rights conventions. Though the transformation to a democratic society is gradual, the Chairman of the OSCE had stated last year that Kazakhstan has made significant progress in this ongoing process.

Regional Presence
Given its size, resources and capabilities, Kazakhstan was bound to play a significant role as a regional power. Over the past decade, the Kazakh government implemented policies relating to demilitirisation and nuclear disarmament and in doing so, it has become a guarantor of regional stability. Two evident steps in this context were: voluntary closing down of the nuclear facility in Semipalatnisk and giving up on the status of the world's fourth largest country in terms of nuclear missile potential.
Kazakhstan also persistently worked towards regional integration by initiating and supporting several forums in the past decade. The Conference on Cooperation and Confidence Building Measures in Asia meeting held recently has adopted a comprehensive list of Confidence Building Measures for facilitating regional integration. This list echoes the proposals that President Nazarbayev had put forward in 1992 at the 47th UNGA session.

Tasks for the future
Though it is clear that Kazakhstan has achieved great success in the past decade, there is much more to be achieved in the years to come. More so because the international system has undergone significant change in the past few years. President Nazarbayev has outlined the following priorities for the future: safeguarding and nurturing Kazakh statehood;  developing Kazakhstan as a modern democratic nation based on the rule of law; strengthening the stability in the country and in the region; boosting regional and international cooperation; accelerating economic growth; a system of education, vocational training and social services relevant for the 21st century; developing the civil society, protecting the rights and freedoms of citizens; preserving and fostering the moral and spiritual values of the multi-ethnic population of Kazakhstan; ensuring  tolerance of,  and accord among, all faiths and confessions;  fighting corruption; fully engaging in the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking and all forms of extremism. In his address, the Kazakh president has laid out a roadmap for the future to achieve these objectives.

Economy
Rapid and equitable economic development will be realised by evolving a mix of policies and focussing on key sectors of the economy, which could drive the overall process of development and modernisation. The Kazakh strategy is based on the model of a competitive economy with focus on key sectors.  By mid-2005, Kazakhstan seeks to have a blue-print for the development of at least 5 to 7 group of companies in industries such as tourism, oil-and-gas machine building, food processing and textiles, transport logistics, metallurgy and construction materials. In the long-term these will drive the economic growth process once the short-term emphasis on energy is exhausted. The infrastructure required for this has already been put in place. The various national development bodies have raised nearly US$ 730 million, while their investment portfolio exceeds $1.2 billion. The focus in the coming years would be small and medium-size business. The Kazakh government's Small Business Development Fund will get an additional 10 billion Tenge from the central budget, which should bring to 25 billion Tenge the volume of credit available to small businesses this financial year. Agriculture would also contribute in development and the budgetary support for this sector is about 57.9 billion Tenge. Kazakhstan is also seeking to pass several legislations which will allow agriculture and agro-industries to compete effectively once Astana is included in the WTO. Education also forms a key priority for Kazakhstan and public financing of education to the tune of 50 per cent has been sanctioned by the Nazarbayev government. While nearly 20 foreign visiting professors imparted education and other skills to students in Kazakhstan, the aim of the Government is to facilitate a system under which trained Kazakh professionals would be recognised in the West as well. As school education forms the basis of a vibrant society, Kazakhstan seeks to shift to a 12-year school education system by 2008 and also improve the quality of content in the textbooks.

Social welfare
Beginning this year, the Kazakh government has implemented the Program of Further Social Reforms for the period 2005-2007, which provides virtually for every Kazakh family. A sensitive healthcare policy is already in place and over the next few years, the Government seeks to ensure special provisions for children under 5, low-income households, mothers living with four or more under-age children etc. Starting from 2006, Kazakhstan is aiming to provide additional support amounting to 300-1,000 tenge to 247,000 families who have lost their breadwinners. Also, the government is keen on raising the standards of living by increasing the wages of public sector employees by over 30-35 per cent in the next two years.

Political Reforms
President Nazarbayev outlined The National Program of Political Reforms, which seeks to further democratise Kazakhstan based on a dialogue with all sections of the society. Several high-level discussions involving experts from around the world are being planned for discussing and debating the programme of political reforms. Moreover, this programme would also be discussed under a nation-wide policy debate to include a wide range of views. The National Commission on Democratization and Civil Society has been authorised to supervise this process and give recommendations to the President and the parliament on the nature and direction of political reforms. Provisions given in the Kazakh Constitution ensure that there is a check and balance, division of powers, security of rights and freedoms etc. What needs to be ensured that laws are not violated and rights are exercised in accordance with the Constitution.

The most significant point outlined by President Nazarbayev relates to the decentralisation of Executive power and enhancing the effectiveness of the Government. In August 2005, pilot elections of regional governors would be conducted and election of local governors in rural districts will be completed by 2007. The Kazakh president made it clear in his address that the emphasis will be on decentralisation of power to the local levels for which administrative reforms will be undertaken. Three key tasks outlined for this are: improve administrative services of the state;reduce the bureaucracy of government; and optimise the professional level of state personnel.

The authority of the legislature will be enhanced within the framework of the Constitution. The role of both houses of the parliament in the formation of a Central Election Commission, Constitution Council, and the Audit Committee will be discussed as part of the political reforms programme. Moreover, the Judicial system will also be strengthened by: simplifying legal proceedings, ensuring their objectivity, timely disposition of cases, ensuring the rights of citizens, independence of judicial officials, and transparency in judicial proceedings. Changes are also being planned in the election laws in order to bring them to international standards for ensuring free and fair exercise of individual franchise.

Removing corruption has been outlined as a key objective by the president. Given the fact that Kazakhstan was the one of the first post Soviet states to pass anti-corruption laws and sign international conventions, the President deems it imperative that a review of existing regulations is undertaken and improved laws are passed to remove corruption. Several suggestions outlined by the President include:

1. Create comprehensive “one-stop” public service centres, where in one location it is possible to apply for a passport, receive a tax ID number, a driver’s license, etc. This can be done on a pilot basis in Astana and Alma-ata this year.
2. Reduce the number of licenses and permits.
3. Pass appropriate amendments in the law, “On Stock Companies in the Republic of Kazakhstan.”
4. A civil servant should make public that he sold, or handed over management of his business.
5. It is essential to develop an Ethics Code for civil servants that prohibits them from engaging in private business, or lobbying in the interests of companies.
6. Disciplinary councils should finally be given over to the Agency On Civil Service Affairs, and transferred to the central budget; the councils should be strengthened with legal personnel, and not hire officials who are old enough to retire. The Council should be charged with assuring that civil servants act ethically, and in compliance with the Ethic Code.
7. Punishment should be handed out not only to those taking bribes, but also to those giving them.
8. The salary of civil servants should be raised to a level comparable to the salary earned in business.

The President is of the view that the Agency on Fighting Economic Crimes and Corruption must be independent. He suggested that it should be under the direct control of the President. For achieving these objectives, President Nazarbayev said that the opposition’s views should be treated with respect as it is acting only in national interests.

Foreign Policy
In the foreign policy area, the priority of the Kazakh government is on the development of cooperation with Russia, China, the United States and the European Union. Kazakhstan will also seek greater relations with leading countries of Asia and the Middle East. Relations with Russia are on a upswing particularly after both sides signed the Treaty on border delimitation recently. For the first time, Russia and Kazakhstan have fully demarcated borders. Another foreign policy priority for the government is to expedite accession to the World Trade Organization. Also, efforts would be undertaken to have close alliance with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the CIS, the Eurasian Economic Community, and in establishing the Single Economic Space in the region. The engagement with the OSCE will continue to be important as Kazakhstan has been nominated to chair this forum in 2009.

In his speech, President Nazarbayev has stated that Kazakhstan desires strong relations with major powers including US, Russia, EU etc. He has also emphasised on having close relations with regional forums. Given its geographical location, stable relations with Russia and China will remain crucial for Kazakhstan. However, the President has also indicated his desire to form a Union of Central Asian States. Given the high degree of similarity among the CARs, such a union could act as a check against external interference. 

Global Terrorism
The President outlined terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking as the three main challenges facing the international community in the 21st century. Kazakhstan is also facing these threats due to its geographic location. To evolve a global alliance against these threats, Kazakhstan had organised a special session of the UN Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee, in which heads of 40 international organizations took part. Precisely for these reasons, Kazakhstan is a partner in US-led anti terrorist coalition and had sent its forces to Iraq. While the necessary laws and regulations have already been passed, the Kazakh President emphasised on a qualitatively new level of coordination at the regional and global level to counter these threats.

Regional Integration
For centuries, the Central Asian region has been the bridge between the East and the West. However, decline of trade through the Silk Route and superpower rivalry in the previous century led to a decline in this region. The superpower rivalry, according to the President, has revived again in the region though it is for economic dominance. Addressing other countries in the region, President Nazarbayev said that the choice was clear: either remain as the supplier of raw materials to global markets and wait for another imperial power to target the region or ensure economic integration of the region. In this context, President Nazarbayev proposed a Union of Central Asian States (UCAS) which could be based on the Treaty of eternal friendship between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This Union should also be open for other countries to join. The Kazakh president stated that the time was ripe to undo the effects of the Czarist and Stalinist policy of 'divide and rule' in order to unite the region for the progress and development of the Central Asian people.

Comments

Prof. Nirmala Joshi, formerly with JNU
President Nazarbayev's speech indicates an optimistic tenor with regard to the performance of the government as well as the objectives laid out for the future. There are some points in the speech which require further clarification. For example, President Nazarbayev mentions that his government is seeking to implement cluster initiatives to industrialise the agricultural production. However, he does not make it clear whether this approach will be limited to the agricultural sector or include other areas of the economy as well. In his speech, President Nazarbayev has stated that Kazakhstan aspires to evolve a democracy based on the Western model and the experience of South East Asian countries. However, he does not elaborate as to how he will combine the features of these two models and apply it to Kazakhstan. Given Kazakhstan's diversity, the Indian model of democracy would have been a good example to emulate. On the issue of decentralisation of power, President Nazarbayev needs to elaborate as to what extent the local self governments will be empowered to take key decisions. On the issue of tackling corruption in governance, President Nazarbayev has talked about the Agency on Fighting Economic Crimes and Corruption and said that it must be independent. However, he also says that the Agency must be brought under the direct control of the President. There seem to be a contradiction here as if the Agency is under the President then how can it function independently to review the performance of officials.

Dr. Ramakant Dwivedi, Institute of Defence and Strategic Analyses
President Nazarbayev's speech has laid out the socio-economic perspective for Kazakhstan. Among the challenges that Kazakhstan faces today, religious extremism and terrorism are the main threats. This threat is clearly stated by the president in his speech. The speech also includes proposals for substantive political reforms. The fact that there are nearly 5,000 non governmental organisations working in Kazakhstan today indicates that reforms are taking place and the political space is expanding to include different voices. The speech also indicates the threat posed by corruption and nepotism in administration. The impact of the Tulip revolution in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan which led to the removal of the Askar Akayev government is visible in the speech which lays out the agenda for reforms in administration. On the issue of democracy, it would have been that Kazakhstan evolves its own model of democracy rather than look to the West or any other country.

Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Institute of Defence Studies and Strategic Analyses
Kazakhstan is clearly doing better than the rest of the Central Asian republics. The challenges that it faces today include terrorism and drug traffickin which are posing a serious threat. On the issue of political reforms, the National Programme of Political Reforms stated by the president in his speech needs more elaboration. Though the President has talked about institutionalising democracy, there is no mention of the Indian experience in his speech even though Kazakhstan and India have many common features. On the issue of regional integration, President Nazarbayev has outlined his concept of a Union of Central Asian States. More information and details of this idea are required to show how different it would be from the several regional forums that are already existing.

K.R.Jawahar, SAPRA India Foundation
On the issue of political reforms and democracy, President Nazarbayev has laid out a comprehensive programme. Though there have been criticism for the September 2004 parliamentary elections in which the ruling Otan party got 42 seats and over 60 per cent of the votes, we should also not overlook the fact that the Asar Party, led by Dariga Nazarbayeva, got two seats, There are several examples of democracies in which the leadership has changed hands within the same family. But in the case of Kazakhstan, the daughter of the President has chosen to develop her own political base. Also, her party has on several occasions criticised the ruling Otan party's policies. Articles published in two Kazakh newspapers - Karavan and Novoye Pokolenie - which are considered to be part of Dariga’s media empire – have been severely critical of Otan. Dariga is said to be a top contender against President Nazarbayev in the next presidential elections slated for December 2006. Also, the opposition parties such as Ak Zhol, Democratic Choice for Kazakhstan and others, are working towards a coalition to project a consensual candidate. The political space in Kazakhstan is opening up and one may see several contenders for the top job in the presidential elections of December 2006. In April 2004, President Nazarbayev vetoed a bill that sought to restrict the mass media. Though framed by the Government, the bill was found unconstitutional by the Kazakh Constitutional Council thereby leading to the presidential veto. These developments clearly indicate that the political space in Kazakhstan is opening up and unlike the past, one may see several contenders for the top job in the next presidential elections that are slated to be held in December 2006.

On the issue of regional integration, the president has said that Kazakhstan desires strong relations with major powers including US, Russia, Europe, countries of Asia and others. He has also emphasised on having close relations with various regional forums. However, given its geographical location, it is clear that stable relations with Russia and China will remain crucial for Kazakh development in the years to come. Kazakh president's idea of a Union of Central Asian States appears relevant as presently there is no regional forum that has only the five Central Asian states. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) etc., include other countries as well. Therefore, the regional forum proposed by President Nazarbayev could act as a check against external interference.

Ruslan Akhmet, Councillor, Embassy of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has achieved economic progress with the annual growth rate of the GDP averaging around 10 per cent for the last 3 years. There is 100 per cent convertibility of currency and inflation is low. The UCAS model proposed by President Nazarbayev is based on free integration and does not mean the surrendering of sovereignty by participating countries. This integration model has strategic advantages and would work better as the countries in the region share a common history and culture. On the issue of democracy, President Nazarbayev has stated that Kazakhstan will choose from various models of democratic governance whatever is best suited for the country. No model of democracy imposed from outside can work in Kazakhstan. Therefore, the president has only proposed to take the best out of the varied experiences of several countries.